The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the “Slight Risk” back to the south and east. The greatest risk for severe weather covers a large region of Virginia and the Lower Mid-Atlantic. Some of these thunderstorms will produce damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes. There will be two rounds of potentially severe storms — one round in Southwestern Virginia early Thursday morning, and a second round east of the Blue Ridge Thursday afternoon and evening.
We will be watching showers and thunderstorms moving across Interstate 77 in Southwest Virginia early Thursday morning. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe with damaging wind gusts. Very heavy rain and a flood potential also appear to be a threat with locally 1 to 3 inches of rain in some thunderstorms.
By Thursday late morning and early afternoon, thunderstorms will move across Interstate 81 and the Shenandoah Valley. The atmosphere ahead of these storms is expected to become favorable for severe weather.
As round one exits the region, additional thunderstorms are expected to re-fire ahead of a cold front across Central and Eastern Virginia. We will have to watch individual discrete cells as a few storms could be tornadic. Damaging straight-line winds and a tornado potential will be possible, given the amount of low-level shear that’s modeled to be present east of the Blue Ridge.
It’s important to understand the severe weather categories by the Storm Prediction Center. A marginal threat (level 1) means isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Although it’s the lowest category, an isolated thunderstorm can still produce a tornado if conditions are right. “Slight Risk” (level 2) is something Virginia sees more frequently during severe weather events, which means scattered severe thunderstorms.
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