An upper level low (cut off from the main jet stream, unable to move much) will meander across the Southeast and Lower Mid-Atlantic for several days next week. High pressure across the north will push the heaviest rain to the south. Over the past few days, models have been increasing rainfall amounts across South Central Virginia and Hampton Roads region area, beginning late Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. There will be a very sharp cutoff line from little rain vs. moderate to heavy rain.
Model Comparison – European Model: The European model started “wet,” then slowly trended downward over the last few days. As of Sunday morning, The “ensemble” kept the rain further north — which we figured would be the case. As of Sunday morning, the European model has indeed pushed the rain all the way into the Richmond area.
