As of 5:00 p.m. Sunday, Arthur has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and moving toward the North-northeast at 9 mph. Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for much of the North Carolina coast. The center of Arthur is forecast to pass just off the Outer Banks by Monday afternoon.
Rainfall amounts & Wind Forecast: 2 to 4 inches likely along the Outer Banks with wind gusts 45 to 60 mph. Hampton Roads and the Lower Eastern Shore (Exmore and points south) can expect 1 to locally 2 inches of rain and wind gusts 30 to 45 mph. Waves will be high and choppy, including the Chesapeake Bay. Tidal flooding is also possible with some areas seeing 1 to 2 ft of water inundation (above ground level.)
An Upper Low will move across the Tennessee River Valley and Lower Mid-Atlantic Region as Arthur moves away from the coast. The Upper Low is expected to stall as it cuts itself off from the jet stream. Upper Low’s move counter-clockwise, and this will help to pump moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic to create rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall.
This is a dangerous flooding potential with up to 8 inches possible, with the highest amounts across Northwest North Carolina and the Spine of the Blue Ridge. Many roads will likely flood, resulting in numerous road closures, flooded creeks, streams, and river flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED HIGHWAYS!
High pressure will build in across the north, which will provide a northeast to easterly flow. While coastal areas may not see as much rain compared to South Central and Southwest Virginia, the persistent flow will allow for the potential for tidal flooding across coastal communities through the week.
Please stay tuned to Virginia Weather Network for more updates.