The Storm Prediction Center has placed Far Northern Virginia and Washington, D.C. in a ENHANCED RISK (Level 3) for late this afternoon and evening. Some storms may contain damaging straight-line winds and hail, along with heavy downpours. Models are split on timing, however, storms tend to develop 1 to 3 hours earlier than indicated.
The HIRES NAM model shows a line of severe storms developing across Northern Virginia from Winchester to near Washington-Dulles International Airport. The timing of these severe storms will range from 4:00 p.m. across Northwestern Virginia, moving southeast across the D.C. Area and into the Delmarva after 9:00 p.m. this evening. For areas south of Interstate 66 in Northern Virginia, models are not showing much activity this afternoon or evening, so just a few widely scattered storms are possible.