Friday’s Storm Summary
— VWN Storm Impact Scale: 5 out of 10 (0 = none to 10 = significant)
— Locally heavy downpours ALONG THE COAST and MAINLY EAST of I-95 corridor.
— Little, if any rain, WEST of I-95 corridor.
— Coastal flooding possible, including flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas.
— Rainfall amounts along the coast (including Chesapeake Bay area) 1 to 3 inches, locally higher.
— Gusty winds up to 45 mph possible along the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Coast.
The National Hurricane Center has a 70 percent chance for for a broad area of low pressure off the South Carolina coast to develop into a Tropical Storm. If it does become a Tropical Storm, it’s name would be Fay, the sixth storm of the season — and a record for becoming the earliest “F” named storm since July 22, 2005.
The latest model data shows “Fay” developing along the Outer Banks and moving parallel of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Due to land interaction, Fay will likely remain a weak Tropical Storm, but the potential is there for locally heavy downpours due to very high precipitable water values and the fetch of moisture from the Atlantic, as the system turns counter-clockwise.
While the NAM (North-American model) is usually overdone (and currently has the highest totals,) the other models don’t seem to be handling this system correctly and forecasting very low amounts of rain. Given all the factors previously mentioned, such as precipitable water values, humidity, and plenty of moisture from the Atlantic, a “compromise” or “middle ground” is favored. The SREF model has been pretty consistent in showing 1 to 3 inches of rain along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
The latest Precipitation Forecast from the Weather Prediction Center seems to favor the SREF model and blending with the overdone NAM model, showing 1 to 3 inches of rain along coastal areas. Rain would be likely westward to the I-95 corridor, but little if any rain to the west.
Gusty winds 30 to 45 mph can be expected along the Mid-Atlantic coast, including the Chesapeake Bay. Further west, not much wind gusts will be 20 mph or less. Minor coastal flooding is possible, along with low-lying and poor-drainage area flooding.
To sum everything up, while we may have a named storm, it’s impacts DO NOT look to be severe — just noticeable on Friday with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds.