Yes, I know that we need the rain, but we’re just calling Friday “nasty” for any outdoor activities, including any High School football games Friday night. Two areas of low pressure will impact the region. The first low-pressure system is along a warm front that will move across the MId-Atlantic on Friday. Rain will begin Thursday night and continue into waves during the overnight hours. Very heavy rain ahead of the warm front with thunderstorms producing gusty winds Friday afternoon. An upper-level low-pressure system will meander across the Ohio River Valley Region through much of the weekend, bringing waves of unsettled weather.
This is where the “nasty” part comes in — No one likes to drive in heavy rain! It looks like the heaviest rain could arrive for the Friday morning commute, especially across the Interstate 95 and 85 Corridors in Southern Virginia, and portions of Interstate 81 and 64 in Southwest and Central Virginia. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible within the heaviest rainfall.
By Friday afternoon, the warm front begins to lift northward, and thunderstorms are likely to form along and south of the warm front during the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, producing gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. I think many of the football games will be rescheduled due to the thunderstorm risk. Although Saturday is looking wet at times, there should be dry periods to get in some of the football games.
Wind gusts regionwide from Thursday night into Friday will range 25 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph in the strongest thunderstorms. Rainfall will range from 0.5″ to 1.5 inches south of Interstate 64 to 1.5 to locally 3+ inches across Northern Virginia and Central and Western Maryland. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible, especially across the Northern Shenandoah Valley and Northern Piedmont Region.