Plowable snow likely across Southwest and South Central Virginia

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Plowable snow likely across Southwest…

Jan62021

An upper level disturbance will cross the mountains late Thursday night into Friday and spread plowable snow across portions of the mountains and Piedmont region. There is still remains low confidence on how far north and east accumulating snow gets, so we urge you to please continue to monitor updates for any changes.

Friday morning: Most models agree on moderate to heavy snow moving into Southwest Virginia and the North Carolina Piedmont. Temperatures during this period will range in the upper 20’s to around 30 degrees. Snow will likely begin around 4:00 a.m. WEST of Interstate 77/Wytheville and after 7:00 a.m. across the North Carolina Piedmont, New River and Roanoke Valleys.

By Friday afternoon, snow will move into South Central and Southern Virginia. Some of the models push the snow further south, however, the short term models (most reliable in this period) bring snow up to the Interstate 64 corridor. This is something that we’ll have to watch carefully over the next several model runs. Higher confidence for plowable snow across the New River Valley and points south along Highway 58.

By Friday evening into Friday night, things start to get interesting, as we still have our upper level disturbance moving across South Central Virginia. Snow moves into the Metro Richmond area with temperatures around freezing. A few inches of snow could accumulate in the Metro Richmond area, especially if the intensity of the snow comes down moderate or heavy. Snow will slowly taper off during the overnight hours and off the coast by early Saturday morning.

Snowfall Forecast: We are leaning toward short range models at this time as there remains room for moisture to advance northward due to vertical lift. Digesting some of the model data, the models are not handling where the moisture should be and we believe that models are slowly catching on to that as some are slowly moving the precipitation northward along the Interstate 64 corridor.

Plowable snow appears likely across the North Carolina Piedmont, Southwest Virginia, and possibly eastward into South Central Virginia. The heaviest snow accumulation will be along the mountains of Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee.

Models:
North American Model (NAM)