An upper level low will move north of our area on Saturday. This will put the mountains in good spot for enhanced instability and steep lapse rates aloft, including a northwest flow developing. Snow showers will develop during the day Saturday, with some snow showers spilling east of the mountains into portions of the New River and Roanoke Valley, and possibly the Piedmont.
The SREF model mean shows widespread 1 to 4 inches of snow just to the west of the New River Valley. I think *some* snow accumulation is likely in the New River Valley and POSSIBLY the Roanoke Valley, however, it would have to occur Saturday after dark, since Saturday will be above freezing in the mid to upper 30’s in the New River Valley, with temperatures 40 degrees or higher across the Roanoke Valley and the Piedmont.
A few snow showers or flurries are even possible Saturday into Saturday night east of the Blue Ridge in the Virginia Piedmont — however, they will be very light — and temperatures likely above freezing will limit accumulation from occurring.
Our latest snowfall forecast calls for around an inch of snow across portions of the New River Valley. The higher elevations of Southwest Virginia (above 2,500 feet) will see 2 to 4 inches of snow. Wind gusts 35 to 45 mph are likely this weekend across the highest elevations with wind gusts up to 30 mph east of the Blue Ridge.