POTENTIAL IMPACTS – THURSDAY & FRIDAY
COASTAL FLOODING THREAT – THURSDAY & FRIDAY
We have a HIGH RISK for impacts across the Outer Banks of North Carolina, including the Pamlico Sound, and interior portions of Eastern North Carolina.
Hurricane Dorian is expected to make a north turn Monday into Tuesday, near or just off the Florida coast. Tropical Storm and Hurricane conditions will start to spread northward, along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts by Wednesday.
The Center of Dorian is expected to come close to the Carolina coast, with a possible landfall late Thursday.
A cold front will move across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday into Friday. Dorian will start a transition from Hurricane to an Extratropical cyclone, meaning it’s losing it’s tropical characteristics. This will cause the wind field to expand. When tropical systems turn into Extratropical cyclones, the heaviest rain tends to be on the north and west side of the center. Rainfall amounts will range anywhere from 2 to 5 inches (at this time) for Hampton Roads, and as much as 10 inches across the Outer Banks and Northeast North Carolina.
High pressure will start to build in from the northeast. The combination of Dorian and high pressure will create a strong, persistent East-Northeast wind. This will likely cause coastal flooding. Significant storm surge is becoming a likelihood for the Outer Banks. If the forecast continues to hold, evacuations will likely be needed.
For residents along the Chesapeake Bay that floods easily, please continue to watch the forecast for any changes and be ready to move to higher ground.
Now is a good time to plan ahead and make a list. Bring loose outdoor objects indoors, or secure them in a safe place from wind. Review evacuation routes in case you have to leave, or ordered to leave. Buy enough essentials that will last for several days, such as non-perishable foods and build a hurricane kit.
Dorian’s impacts are not expected to begin until Thursday, so there’s time for this to change. However, since Dorian will still be close to the Carolina coast, even if the center were to pass to the south of the Outer Banks, there would still be a significant threat for storm surge, with less rain across Hampton Roads and Delmarva Peninsula.
Our Facebook page (www.facebook.com/VAWeatherAction) has a ton of information available on Hurricane Dorian. We are doing Facebook live updates two times a day until the storm arrives, then frequent updates.