Two systems, one across the Great Lakes Region and the other in the Southeast United States, will phase together and create rainy and windy conditions for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
TIMING THE RAIN (HRRR Model)
Rain will develop across Southwest Virginia. The rain could be heavy at times. A developing area of low pressure will moving through the Eastern Carolina’s.
10 a.m. Wednesday (HRRR Model)
Moisture along the cold front and area of low pressure in the Carolina’s, will merge together. Thunderstorms could develop ahead of the cold front and produce gusty winds and heavy rain.
1 p.m. Wednesday (HRRR model)
The rain may be heavy at times across Central and Eastern Virginia, as an area of low pressure combines with a cold front and pushes northeast, off the Virginia and Delmarva coast.
4 p.m. Wednesday
By late-afternoon Wednesday, most of the rain will be across the Delmarva Peninsula, and moving across the Northeast, as an area of low pressure develops into a powerful Nor’easter.
A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Roanoke Valley and portions of Southwest Virginia from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
Models have increased wind gusts from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Wind gusts could reach 50 mph across portions of the Shenandoah Valley and in the mountains. Wind gusts along the coast could reach 40 to 45 mph.
Some power outages are possible from down tree limbs and branches. High-profile vehicles are asked to drive using extreme caution.
MODELS: RAINFALL TOTALS
The HRRR model has the most rainfall, anywhere from 1 to 3 inches across Central and Eastern Virginia. This is very possible, considering both systems will ‘phase’ together across the Mid-Atlantic. Also, a southerly flow ahead of the front and cooler, drier air behind this system, should produce thunderstorms.
HIRES NAM 3k model also shows convection (thunderstorms). Rain amounts are a bit lower across Hampton Roads, with the heaviest rain across Northern Virginia and the Northern Neck.
RDPS Canadian model is similar to the HIRES NAM 3k model guidance.
VWN RAINFALL FORECAST (WEDNESDAY)
Our rainfall forecast remains mainly the same. We did add more rain across Southwest Virginia and amounts should generally be around one half of an inch. The heaviest rain will be along and east of the Blue Ridge, with many areas receiving more than one inch.