8:00 AM SAT – #DORIAN Update from Tropical Weather Action / Virginia Weather Action
*** PLEASE READ ALL INFORMATION BELOW AS IT WILL LIKELY ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS ***
- While model guidance trends EAST, MANY ensemble members are just inland or right along the coast of Florida. Even if the center of Dorian stays off the Florida coast by 100 miles, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE STILL LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA, including storm surge.
- THE EAST TREND WILL LIKELY STOP SOON….. As the ridge weakens and Dorian drifts northward, the ridge is still in place across the Atlantic. There’s also a ridge to the Southwest of Florida, and that will be compressed as the first trough moves through early this week. Dorian will move in between these ridges but drift slowly for some time. It’s going to be a relatively “tight” window of where Dorian can go for several days… So it’s only going to go so far to the east. There is a chance that IF Dorian moves at this current speed and does not slow down, the ridge remains stronger and would put the storm right along the coast of Florida or inland before turning towards the north…. THEREFORE IT’S POSSIBLE TO SEE A WESTWARD SHIFT AGAIN.
- Based on the latest trends, we have pushed the “extensive” wind damage potential closer to the coast, but we still have “major” wind damage potential for many locations along the coast of Florida…. because that potential is very possible as Dorian slows down near Florida for a few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. Dorian is several hundred miles WIDE, So, there would still be impacts felt across inland areas, even if it’s just gusty winds and bands of heavy rainfall.
- THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND FLOODING IS INCREASING ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST…. There could be huge impacts in these areas between late Tuesday Night through Thursday morning. How close Dorian gets will determine the magnitude of those impacts.
- THE THREAT FOR WIND AND FLOODING IS ALSO INCREASING FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST… Impacts across these areas could arrive as early as Wednesday Night, but certainly possible on Thursday. Once again, how close Dorian gets will determine the magnitude of those impacts.
- IT IS TO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT IMPACTS, IF ANY, FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA AND HAMPTON ROADS (SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA). You should definitely monitor the latest forecast. With high pressure building in across the north late week, and Dorian to the south, AT THE MINIMUM, gusty breezes and minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding…. If Dorian is close to the North Carolina coast, the magnitude of these impacts will be worse, along with heavy rainfall.
- IF Dorian makes it as far north as the North Carolina coastline, DORIAN WILL WEAKEN TO AN EXTENT… BUT IMPACTS WOULD STILL BE SIGNIFICANT. There will likely be some shear that causes Dorian to weaken and the water temperatures are a little cooler than the water temperatures around the Bahamas. However, as long as it stays over water, it will likely remain a hurricane.