The Storm Prediction Center has placed Central and Northern Virginia in a LEVEL 2 *SLIGHT RISK* for severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening. The Slight Risk extends northward into Maryland, Eastern Pennsylvania and portions of New Jersey. TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 2:00 P.M. TO 10:00 P.M.
By early to mid-afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will develop across Eastern Virginia. Any one of these storms could turn severe and will have to monitor the situation for any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings this afternoon. Surface CAPE will be between 1000 to 2000 J/kg, so plenty of “fuel” will be present for these thunderstorms to grow. Low-level shear will be present, meaning there will be “spin” in the atmosphere for thunderstorms to produce a few isolated tornadoes. Damaging wind gusts is the biggest concern, along with frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
Between 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m., we’ll watch additional showers and storms try to develop along and east of the Blue Ridge. The environment ahead of these storms will still be unstable and the potential for damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes will be possible. The second round may be more focused towards Northern or North Central Virginia.
Localized flooding is another concern with some of these thunderstorms, especially across Hampton Roads (Southeastern Virginia.) Some models paint 2 to locally 3 inches of rain from this afternoon through early Friday morning. Flooding will be possible across low-lying and poor drainage areas.
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