Showers for Northern & Western Virginia; Cooler on Tuesday


A cold front will offer ‘some’ relief in the rainfall department across Northern and Western Virginia, but very small amounts elsewhere.

Forecast Breakdown: This Evening into Tonight

HRDPS 2.5 km model – Monday Evening

Rain will move across the Northern and Western portions of the state late this afternoon and continue into early Tuesday morning. Areas along and west of the Blue Ridge may pick up some decent rainfall amounts, up to an inch possible in some locations.


HRDPS 2.5 km model – Tuesday Morning

Tuesday morning, the front will clear the area and the wind direction will shift to the North-Northeast, this will develop overrunning precipitation. Additional showers will develop along the Blue Ridge with a cool wedge across the area.

Model Total Rainfall

NDFD 2.5 km Model Forecast – Total Precipitation

While this model does not show much rain across Eastern Virginia, I think we could have showers around. A low deepening off the coast and an onshore flow should produce rain showers Tuesday into Wednesday. ANY amount of rain helps at this point!

Local and regional National Weather Service offices have up to an inch of rain along the Virginia/Maryland border and Virginia/West Virginia border near the Allegheny Mountains. It also shows “appreciable amounts” along portions of the Blue Ridge. Amounts less than one-half inch mainly along the coast for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Clouds & Cooler Temperatures Tuesday

Most locations will be stuck in the 60’s on Tuesday, even some 50’s along the Blue Ridge and in the mountains! Not much sunshine, due to a northeast wind, bringing in moisture and low cloud cover.

Current Drought Status

The Central and Southern portion of the state remains under a moderate or severe drought. It would take more than six inches of rain to completely end the drought. Unfortunately, portions of the Southeast, including South Carolina and Georgia, needs at least one foot of rain to completely end the drought.