Snow in November?! It happens, but it’s mainly confined to the mountains. While this is NOT a sure thing, this is something that we have been watching for the last several days. We want to give our take on the snow or mixed precipitation potential threat going into next Thursday and Friday.
Looking at the 500mb pattern, while the GFS model has been showing more of a “zonal” flow (meaning a lot of mild air in between brief cold shots, the European Ensemble digs this feature further to the south. You can see this “digging” with the brighter colors across the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. This type of setup could mean a “cut-off” low-pressure system that tries to produce an impressive coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
European Ensemble Shows Coastal Low
On the European Ensemble, you can clearly see the “L” meaning low pressure. The European Ensemble has 50 members, and what you are seeing is each ensemble where it places each position of low-pressure late Thursday into Friday. This would help to produce moderate precipitation intensity and drag colder air temperatures aloft to the surface. If the precipitation is on the lighter side, surface temperatures would be an issue, only in the mid to upper 30s and only snow would fall in the mountains.
Frost and Freeze Wednesday Morning… BEFORE the event
As we mentioned, much colder air will be moving across the Mid-Atlantic Region later in the week. We will likely see our first widespread frost or freeze of the season along and WEST of the Blue Ridge. Low temperatures early Wednesday morning will range from the upper 20s in the mountains to the low to mid-30s across the Shenandoah Valley. The ground is quite warm (right now,) but the colder air mass moving into the region will help to set the stage for at least some wintry mischief later in the week!
Watching Thursday Night through Friday Night Very Carefully!
The European model does indeed show an area of low pressure along the Delmarva Coast. If this indeed happens, then we will be talking about a rain changing to snow scenario across portions of the Shenandoah Valley. Some snow accumulation is possible, but all the right ingredients have to come together to make this workout. Across the Allegheny Highlands and even the mountains in Southwest Virginia, snow accumulation is favored, just due to the wind direction, producing upslope snow showers.
– Mixed precipitation of rain and snow will be possible LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT along and WEST of the Blue Ridge
– There could be a period of wet snow across the Central and Northern Shenandoah Valley.
– Snow accumulation IFFY and DEPENDENT on surface temperatures and coastal low development.