Updated: 6:00 PM riday, October 18, 2019
By: Denver Murray, Peter Forister Updated: 6:00 PM Friday, October 18, 2019
Tropical Storm Nestor will make landfall early Saturday morning along the Florida Panhandle and transition an extratropical system as it moves across Georgia and the Carolina’s on Saturday into Sunday.
Coastal flooding will be a concern from the Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, Pamlico Sound and Outer Banks. 1 to 2 feet of water inundation is likely. Areas north could still experience minor coastal flooding, up to 1 foot of water inundation.
HIRES NAM MODEL: Saturday Evening through Sunday Afternoon
We believe rainfall will be further north and west of the center, due to it’s structure and transitioning into a extra tropical system. High pressure across the north will create a “cool wedge” with precipitation arriving from the south. Northeast to easterly winds from the Atlantic will produce overrunning precipitation.
Also, the Jet Stream is helping to pull moisture ahead of the system, north of the storm track. Even if the center of the storm tracks through Eastern North Carolina and off the Mid-Atlantic coast, moisture will still be further north from the center.
Our “heaviest” rainfall in the graphic may be too far south and east and may have to make adjustments a bit further northwest, especially if low pressure tracks further north and closer to the Virginia / North Carolina coast.
Thunderstorms will be possible on the east side of the center, across the Carolina’s, where a few tornadoes will be possible.
Rain will move in late Saturday afternoon and early evening across far Southwest Virginia and Western North Carolina. After midnight, rain will move into Central and Eastern Virginia, with Northern Virginia and Central Maryland seeing rain beginning after sunrise Sunday.
As the coastal low pulls away, rain will exit Western Virginia by Noon on Sunday, with moderate to heavy rain still possible along I-64, I-95 , and I-81 corridors through about 3:00 p.m Sunday afternoon. By Sunday evening, most of the rain will pull have exited the region, with some rain showers still possible along the immediate coast.
Gusty breezes are likely along and east of the Blue Ridge, with the strongest wind gusts along the coast. Virginia Beach, Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, and Eastern North Carolina, could see wind gusts as high as 50 mph Sunday afternoon.
Watch for areas of inland flooding. Although we are in a drought, these type of systems can still produce flash flooding. Heavy rain rates makes it difficult for the rain to sink into the ground, which creates flash flooding.