The Atlantic is FULL of tropical activity as we have reached the “peak” of hurricane season. “Rene” and “Paulette” will stay out in the open waters of the Atlantic for the next several days, as these systems generally move towards the northwest, then a gradual turn to the north is expected, as a large ridge of high pressure helps to steer these systems. Paulette could pose a threat to Bermuda early next week, so we’ll keep watching this closely.
Locally, our disturbance we’ve been watching off the Carolina coast will finally move inland on Thursday. There’s not much time for this to strengthen, however, this system along with a weak boundary draped off the coast, and another cold front by the weekend, will bring a period of unsettled weather for the next several days.
Thursday: A southeast flow off the Atlantic AND an area of low pressure will move inland and hug the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As this slowly moves north/northwest, waves of locally heavy rainfall will move in across the area, mainly east of I-95. Portions of Southeastern Virginia saw flash flooding from locally heavy rain on Wednesday, and this is possible again today — however, the threat for localized flash flooding will extend northward along the Virginia coast. For this reason, the National Weather Service has issued a “Flash Flood Watch” which is in effect through this evening.
Friday and Saturday: Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the Lower Mid-Atlantic. A few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will remain our biggest concern. Our driest day will be on Saturday with only a few showers around. A cold front will cross the area on Sunday, producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. High pressure across New England will help to dry out our weather going into next week, bringing less humid conditions to the region!
Rainfall Forecast (Through Late Saturday): We’ve had to make adjustments to our rainfall forecast and increase forecast amounts across Eastern Virginia. Another area to watch will be across the Southern Blue Ridge, as an east/southeast wind flow could produce locally heavy rainfall late Thursday into Friday and possibly lingering into early Saturday, before a cold front produces numerous showers and thunderstorms.
This is a reminder to TURN AROUND AND DON’T DROWN! It only takes 6 inches of water to reach the bottom of most vehicles, and one foot of water will likely stall and move your vehicle. Never take that risk.
