Things are certainly getting “interesting” with the models. For the past several days, I’ve mentioned two tracks 1) Dorian moves into Florida, then skirts the Southeast / Mid-Atlantic Coast and then moves out to sea, 2) Dorian moves across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico and makes another landfall along the Alabama coast or Florida Panhandle.
The *consistent* European model still has its eyes on Florida Sunday into Monday, however, it’s what happens “down the road” that could get interesting, even locally in the Mid-Atlantic.
For now, our “Dorian Threat” map has a 70% (HIGH) chance of impacts from West Palm Beach to Daytona Beach, Florida. While there likely will be SOME changes to the forecast in these areas (where exactly Dorian makes landfall) these areas are at the highest risk for seeing the strongest winds, heavy rain, and flooding. This may need to be adjusted a bit further north or south, as new data comes in.
The “High” (red) area means to PREPARE, get enough essential items (non-perishable foods, water, etc.) that will last you for several days. Think about what outside items may need to come inside so they don’t go airborne. Most importantly, WHEN OR IF you are told to evacuate, please do so. There’s ZERO reason for you to stay. If you are elderly or disabled, please call your local county or city office to arrange a ride to a shelter. Most locations have services that will help you get to a safer place.
If you decide to stay, please realize that emergency management may not be able to get to you during hurricane conditions. You are not only putting your life at risk, but other lives as well.