A strong low pressure system traveling from the Mid-South, will move across the Tennessee River Valley and Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday, bringing heavy rain across much of the area, with severe storms possible across Hampton Roads and Eastern North Carolina.
Before we get to the severe weather and flash flooding threat, a period of FREEZING RAIN is possible across the Central and Northern Shenandoah Valley, Eastern West Virginia Panhandle, and Western Maryland. Due to recent warmth, this should NOT be a big deal — but bridges and overpasses may have some slick spots with temperatures around freezing late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
The Weather Prediction Center has much of the Carolina’s and Mid-Atlantic Region in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, with a Moderate Risk along the spine of the Blue Ridge. Several inches of rain could lead to flash flooding across poor-drainage and low-lying areas, with rising creeks, streams, and rivers.
Brief tornadoes are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening across Southern Virginia, Hampton Roads, Williamsburg and Peninsula Region, and Central and Eastern North Carolina. A few strong thunderstorms are also possible as far west as the Blue Ridge, embedded with locally heavy rainfall.
Rain will begin late Wednesday afternoon and continue through early Friday morning. The rain will come in the form of several waves. We expect an area of heavy rain to cross Southwest Virginia late Wednesday night into Central Virginia by Thursday morning. Another wave of heavy rain, also associated with strong storms, will move across the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
On the back side of this system, snow showers will be possible across Southwest Virginia (mainly New River Valley and points west) early Friday morning. Very minor accumulation possible, especially above 2,500 feet — but may be difficult due to very heavy rain and saturated ground.
IF that wasn’t enough, a round of SNOW is possible late Saturday into early Sunday across Southwest Virginia, Shenandoah Valley, much of West Virginia, and Western Maryland — maybe even for Northern Virginia. This doesn’t look amplified, so as long as the cold air stays in place as the system arrives, I don’t see this “cutting” into the Great Lakes Region. This could be a decent snow event if it pans out (not significant, but decent…)