We are now at “the peak” of the hurricane season. This is when you typically expect a lot of activity and the tropics are loaded! “Rene” has formed in the Far Eastern Atlantic, impacting the Cabo Verde Islands, but is NOT expected to threaten any other land areas. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the West Coast of Africa. This will likely be named “Sally” in the next several days. Further west, “Paulette” is expected to move towards the northwest as it interacts with steering from a ridge of high pressure. This could impact Bermuda next week, but it’s too early tell and needs to be monitored.
Locally, our current focus is a disturbance to the southwest of Bermuda, this is expected to slowly move towards the Carolina coast by the end of the week. There’s not much time for this to strengthen, however, there is some potential for this to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm before it makes landfall. This feature along with a weak boundary draped off the coast, and another cold front by the weekend, will bring a period of unsettled weather for the next several days.
A southeast flow off the Atlantic will bring tropical moisture into the area. Rain will spread across Eastern North Carolina and Southeast Virginia by Wednesday afternoon. Locally heavy downpours are possible as bands of rain develop across the area and could lead to minor instances of localized flooding.
Rain will continue to spread west/northwest across North Carolina and Central and South Central Virginia Wednesday Night into Thursday. While we are NOT anticipating any widespread severe weather, any breaks in the clouds will likely help to produce some stronger thunderstorms that may result in gusty winds and flooding. With the southeast flow, we’ll need to monitor portions of the Southern Blue Ridge this flow will help thunderstorms will develop over these areas and may result in a low to medium flooding threat, especially for poor drainage, low lying areas, rivers, creeks, and streams.
NAM Model – Wednesday through Friday
The latest NAM model shows waves of heavy rain moving across East Central North Carolina and Southeastern Virginia Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with a break Thursday morning. Additional showers and storms are expected to re-develop Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, with the possibility for some of these strong to be on the strong side. Additional storms are likely during the day Friday. As a cold front moves across the region on Saturday, additional heavy rain is possible. High pressure across the northeast will finally improve our weather by Sunday into early next week.
Latest Rainfall Forecast
Our forecast is a blend of all weather models, but we added higher rain amounts towards the west, across the Southern Blue Ridge, due to the Southeast flow.
- Across Far Northern Virginia, rainfall amounts are expected to rain under one half inch.
- Across Central Virginia, up to 1 inch of rain is likely, with locally higher amounts possible.
- 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely, with the potential for 3+ inches across southern portions of Virginia into North Carolina.
We may have to increase rainfall amounts in future updates.
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